Baltic Exchange Market Report (13 December 2024)
Capesize
The Capesize market faced a difficult week, marked by steady declines and a lack of support across both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The BCI 5TC began on a subdued note at $12,702 but saw consistent downward pressure, plummeting to $10,474 by Friday, a loss of over $2,200 across the week. In the Pacific, an initial rise in cargo volumes failed to sustain any momentum as the growing tonnage list and subdued demand weighed heavily on rates. Limited activity from key miners exacerbated the pressure on earnings. The C5 index started the week at $7.42 but dropped to $6.990 by week’s end. Meanwhile, the Atlantic offered little relief. Despite increased January cargo availability from the South Brazil and West Africa to China markets, Brazilian iron ore exports slowed, and an oversupply of vessels kept rates under pressure. The C3 index fell from $17.56 on Monday to $16.230 by week’s end. Fronthaul activity from East Coast Canada added to the bearish tone, with significant discounted fixtures reported.
Panamax
A continuation of the previous week played out with a stable opening to the week for rates in the Atlantic. Trans-Atlantic demand remained the main driver here, whilst fronthaul interest remained lacklustre all week. An 81,000-dwt delivery Skaw achieved $10,000 for a trip via US Gulf and Egypt, redelivery Gibraltar earlier part of the week, however this was deemed closer to $9,000 as we close highlighting the slow decline. Asia struggled to get going this week with pressure mounting from the very start as the tonnage count grew. This was pitched against a sparse looking demand book and rates drifted consequently, $7,000 rumoured fixed on an 81,000-dwt delivery China for a NoPac round. Despite the gloom in Asia, there was plenty of period discussion, and despite the lower levels to previous, numerous reports of deals concluded including an 81,000-dwt delivery China fixed basis 9/12 months at $7,300 for the first 40 days and balance thereafter at $11,750.
Ultramax/Supramax
With the looming widespread festive period arriving, the Atlantic remained a rather positional affair during the week. The North Atlantic continued a rather subdued trend. A 64,000-dwt fixing delivery US Gulf for a petcoke run to India at $23,000. Whilst a 63,000-dwt fixed a trip from the US Gulf to North Brazil at $18,500. The Mediterranean-Continent struggled to impress with limited fresh enquiry appearing. A 58,000-dwt fixing delivery Hamburg for a trip to South Brazil at $9,250 option North Brazil at $9,700 for the first 45 days and balance $14,000. The South Atlantic saw limited action and remained finely balanced. Further losses were seen in the Asian arena as sentiment remained low. A 63,000-dwt open CJK fixed a NoPac round at $12,000. Further south, a 55,000-dwt fixed delivery Singapore trip via Indonesia redelivery China in the low $10,000s. A fairly good amount for demand from the Indian Ocean, although again rates remained rather subdued. A 57,000-dwt fixing delivery Richards Bay trip to Pakistan at $15,000 plus $150,000 ballast bonus. Period activity lacked much interest, a 58,000-dwt open Mumbai fixing 3/5 months trading in the low $10,000s.
Handysize
The market saw limited visible activity across both basins this week. In the Continent and Mediterranean regions, the Continent appeared softer due to lack of fresh scrap orders and Russian demand while the Mediterranean side was relatively stable. A 37,000-dwt fixed delivery Brunsbüttel trip via Poland to Conakry at $11,300. In the US Gulf, the market remains very slow, with very little fixing activity being recorded, charterers have been bidding lower than the previously agreed levels. A 38,000-dwt fixed for delivery US Gulf to redelivery Morocco at $12,000. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic appeared more balanced with market sentiment remaining generally stable. A 34,000 heard fixed delivery Recalada redelivery West Africa at $16,000. In Asia, the tonnage count has been increasing throughout the week, leading to downward pressure on rates and some brokers anticipating further market softening. A 28,000-dwt heard fixed delivery Japan redelivery Southeast Asia at $8,000.
Clean
LR2
An early flutter pushed the MEG LR2s beginning of this week, only to be re-corrected back to where they were by the week end. TC1 75kt MEG/Japan topped out on Wednesday at WS115 up from WS110 where it has returned to. A run West on TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent remained flat around the $3.3-3.4m mark.
West of Suez, Mediterranean/East LR2s on TC15 continued along at the $3.1m region for the second week-on-week.
LR1
The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index held flat at the WS110 level despite the LR2s making small gains mid-week. A trip to the UK-Continent on TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent dropped an incremental $64,000 to $2.48m.
On the UK- Continent, the TC16 60kt ARA/West Africa index ticked up this week from WS121 to WS128.
MR
MRs in the MEG continued gently upwards this week. Subsequently, the TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index, ticked back up over the WS200 mark to WS201.07 rendering circa $19,000 / day Baltic round-trip.
UK-Continent MRs recharged themselves some value this week. The TC2 index 37kt ARA/US-Atlantic coast hopped up to WS146 from WS127 over a 48-hour period early in the week. It has since returned to WS140 for the moment with the Baltic TCE showing $13,276 / day round-trip. TC19 37kt ARA/West Africa followed as usual and is currently pegged at WS189.69.
MRs in the USG remained relatively firm this week. TC14 38kt US-Gulf/UK-Continent was marked 29 points higher than last week at WS195 via a stop at WS204. TC18 the 38kt US Gulf/Brazil index also climbed 16.43 points to WS247. A short trip on TC21 38kt US-Gulf/Caribbean also jumped up 19% to $1,014,000.
Handymax
In the Mediterranean, Handymaxes jumped up and down again with the TC6 index currently at WS199, where it was 7 days ago despite being pegged at WS230 mid-week.
Up on the UK-Continent, the TC23 30kt Cross UK-Continent index returned up 34 points to WS184.
VLCC
Owners remained under pressure in the VLCC market this week as rates softened further. The 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China trip (TD3C) lost 3.5 points to WS39.65, giving a daily round-trip TCE of $18,626 basis the Baltic Exchange’s vessel description.
In the Atlantic market, the rate for 260,000 mt West Africa/China (TD15) eased 2 points to WS47.22 (corresponding to a round voyage TCE of $27,499 per day), while the rate for 270,000 mt US Gulf/China (TD22) ended the week $282,500 lower than a week ago at $6,885,000 (a daily round-trip TCE of $32,115).
Suezmax
Charterers regained some control this week in this sector. In West Africa, the 130,000 mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) fell by 3.5 points to WS88, meaning a daily round-trip TCE of $31,749. The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000 mt) lost about 4.5 points to WS86.67 which translates into a daily round-trip TCE of $30,712 basis discharge in Rotterdam. For the TD6 route of 135,000 mt CPC/Med, the rate was trimmed by 2 points to WS97.8 (showing a daily TCE of $32,675 round-trip). In the Middle East, the rate for the TD23 route of 140,000 mt Middle East Gulf to the Mediterranean (via the Suez Canal) was 1.5 points weaker at WS90.5.
Aframax
In the North Sea, the rate for the 80,000 mt Cross-UK Continent route (TD7) rose by 2.5 points to WS127.5 (giving a daily round-trip TCE of $32,558 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven).
In the Mediterranean market, the rate for 80,000 mt Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) eased by another 2.5 points to WS140.94 (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, that shows a daily round-trip TCE of $36,321).
Across the Atlantic, rates rose slightly earlier in the week but by Thursday had settled back to last week’s levels. Basis week-on-week values, the 70,000 mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route (TD26) and the 70,000 mt Covenas/US Gulf route (TD9) rates have remained flat at 176.25 and the WS180 mark, showing a daily round-trip TCE of $41,339 and $47,225, respectively. The rate for the trans-Atlantic route of 70,000 mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) has capitulated by 15.5 points to WS175.83 (showing a round-trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of $42,287 per day).
LNG
The bearish sentiment in the LNG market shows no immediate signs of abating, with weak fundamentals continuing to dominate. In the Pacific, the market remains under pressure, exacerbated by size constraints on cargoes. The rate differential between 174,000 cbm and 160,000 cbm vessels has narrowed further, now holding at approximately $7,000. The Baltic BLNG1 Aus.-Japan route rates declined, with the larger 174,000 cbm two-stroke vessels bearing the brunt of the downturn, dropping $4,800 to settle at $21,200. Meanwhile, the 160,000 cbm TFDE ships fared slightly better but still fell by $1,800 to close at $14,200.
In the US, there was some activity in cargo fixing, but the overall market sentiment remained subdued. The BLNG2 Houston-Cont. route for 174,000 cbm two-stroke vessels saw a modest increase of $1,300, closing at $22,400, while the 160,000 cbm TFDE index rose $800 to finish at $14,600. On the BLNG3 Houston-Japan route, rates were mostly flat. The larger 174,000 cbm ships recorded a slight uptick of $200 to $28,400, while the smaller 160,000 cbm TFDE vessels slipped by $400, settling at $17,400.
The period market witnessed some activity this week, highlighted by a short-term fixture and reports of an index-linked structure deal. Baltic period rates, however, remained relatively stable. The six-month rate edged up by $50 to $27,400, while the one-year term rate declined slightly to $36,750. The three-year period rate experienced a more significant drop, closing at $53,850. Despite these developments, the overall outlook for the LNG market remains bearish, with little indication of a near-term recovery.
LPG
The LPG market experienced a noticeable uptick in rates this week, with gains observed across both basins and all three routes. In the East, the approach of the Christmas season has sustained demand, with cargoes still waiting to be fixed. While the vessel list appears capable of covering the increased activity, the market sentiment has turned bullish as the year-end approaches. BLPG1 Ras Tanura-Chiba rose by $8.75, closing at $58.917, which translates to a daily TCE equivalent of $41,868.
In the Atlantic, both US routes experienced a healthy level of activity. BLPG2, which often lags behind BLPG3, saw increased interest this week, with several inquiries positioning it as a more significant driver of rate direction than usual. BLPG2 Houston-Flushing climbed by $7.25 to reach a final rate of $63, corresponding to a TCE equivalent of $64,030. Meanwhile, BLPG3 Houston-Chiba also remained active, supported by a tighter tonnage list. Several outstanding potential cargoes are keeping brokers bullish sentiment strong which was shown when rates for BLPG3 increased by $12.833, closing at $113.833, yielding a TCE equivalent of $48,727. This marks one of the most positive weeks for LPG rates recently.
The BDI moved from 1,167 on December 6, 2024 to 1,168 on December 9 and 1,051 on December 13.
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