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Date: 08/04/2025

GDP seen dipping 30-60 bps due to US tariff: Morgan Stanley

US President Donald Trump’s 26% reciprocal tariff on imports from India brings with it a downside risk of 30-60 bps to a growth estimate of 6.5% for FY26 from both the direct and indirect channels, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. While the tariffs exceed estimates for India, on a relative basis these are at par/lower than other key competing economies. With goods exports to the US at 2.1% of GDP (total) and 1.7% of GDP (excluding energy and pharma which are exempt from tariff hikes), the direct impact will likely be less severe. However, a slowdown in US growth and weak global trade momentum will impact external demand. More importantly, Morgan Stanley added, the impact is expected to be more pronounced through the indirect channel of weaker corporate confidence, as per a report.
 
Source: Exim News Service: New York, April 7



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