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Pre-peak Asia-Europe capacity outlook


In Issue 362 of the Sunday Spotlight, SeaIntel Maritime Analysis analysed the current 2018 capacity outlook for weeks 22-30 and compared how the Y/Y growth for this period has compared to 2013-2017. While Asia-North Europe will see a significant capacity increase of 9.2 per cent Y/Y in June/July 2018, this is somewhat tempered by just 1.7 per cent Y/Y growth in Asia-Mediterranean. Capacity in the combined Asia-Europe trade is slated to grow 6.5 per cent Y/Y in June/July 2018.


The chart shows the average week 22-30 deployed capacity for the combined Asia-Europe trade in 2012-2018 (blue line, left-hand axis) as well as the Y/Y growth rate of the week 22-30 average capacity (red bars, right-hand axis). The two Asia-Europe trade lanes work to balance each other out, as years with contraction in one trade lane is often matched with growth in the other trade lane, and vice versa, so the result is modest capacity growth in all years except 2013. On average over 2013-2018, the average week 22-30 deployed capacity grew 1.7 per cent Y/Y. The deployed capacity of the combined Asia-Europe trade is currently slated to grow 6.5 per cent Y/Y in June/July 2018. This does seem to be somewhat in line with current demand projections of 4-6 per cent Y/Y on Asia-Europe.


If a more modest capacity growth of e.g. 5 per cent should be targeted, this can be achieved through the blanking of just 4 average-sized sailings over the 9-week period, which is well within the capability of carriers, without too much disruption, should they so wish, said a release.


Commenting on the data, SeaIntel CEO, Mr Alan Murphy, said "The Asia-Europe trade is seeing a vast amount of newbuildings being delivered in 2018, but the carriers have managed to balance Asia-Europe supply to a reasonable degree. The carriers should be able to blank sailings to match a weak demand environment on Asia-Europe over the peak season, while also having enough capacity buffer if demand growth is stronger than expected."


Source : Exim News Service - COPENHAGEN, May 15


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